Hello REALTORS®,
Last week, I shared with you building permit data across the Upstate. Overall, annual building permits are up 19% since 2019, although they seem to have leveled off after the crazy year—2021. In fact, it looks like 10,000 to 12,000 new housing starts across the six Upstate counties is the new normal, about the same as 2006.
The most important trend may be in the multifamily sector. After a surge in apartment development in 2020 and 2021, when more than 6,000 apartment units were permitted in the Upstate, multifamily development has fallen back substantially to just 644 permits in 2023.
But what does it look like inside the various counties? I looked at the three Western Upstate counties—Anderson, Oconee, and Pickens. Note that I am limited by what is included in the Census data, which is reported to them by the various local governments.
Anderson County
Anderson County is divided into the City of Anderson and Anderson County. Demand for housing, when denied by one county, will try to go somewhere else. Some demand may be going to Oconee County, which has a couple of new subdivisions under construction. And some of it has gone to Anderson County. New housing has trended higher in Anderson County since 2018, the last time building permits were below 1,000 in the county. It is worth noting that while building permits have settled in at about 1,400 per year since 2020, more than 3.500 permits were issued in the county between 2005 and 2006.
Oconee County
Oconee County has surged the most, which is notable because of its location and its rural nature. This attests to the growth and economic strength of Clemson. But like Anderson County, the strength of the housing market before the Great Recession eclipses the current market—even in 2021. More than 2,150 building permits were issued in Oconee County between 2007 and 2008.
Pickens County
Booms and busts, driven by a series of moratoriums affecting different parts of the county, and several large-scale developments in the Clemson and Easley areas, are the largest drivers of Pickens County housing during the last five years. And new regulations are influencing housing as well. Pickens County recently ended a nearly one-year moratorium on new subdivisions of more than 49 lots. The county replaced it with a new moratorium on multifamily housing and townhomes when they enacted much larger minimum lot sizes throughout the county. Clemson was under two different moratoriums between 2020 and 2022. And now Easley is also under moratorium that affects nearly all housing development. The data demonstrates the impact of these moratoriums. While they are in effect, home building falters. When they end, it surges.
Note that the 2021 Census data for the City of Clemson is incomplete. The county level data below is correct—1,454 building permits were issued in Pickens County in 2021.
Sprawl?
The Upstate has been on the front line of anti-growth politics since the housing market rebounded from the Great Recession. But that’s not new. Opposition to new housing just picked up where it left off in 2008. The hot spots are Greenville County and the Easley/Powdersville/Piedmont area.
Unfortunately, the result can be sprawl. And the building permit data indicates that sprawl is a growing problem in the Upstate. Greenville County has gradually increased its production, but as a percentage of the Upstate, it has fallen. Spartanburg County also has fallen as a percentage of the Upstate. Anderson, Laurens, Oconee, and Pickens counties have all increased housing production as a percentage of the region. That’s how sprawl happens.
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Michael Dey, Director of Government Affairs